In the week ahead traders will focus on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report for signs of whether the world's largest economy will stop losing and start adding jobs. A scenario such as that could extend the rally in equities and commodities, but could also raise the odds for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, helping the U.S. Dollar to retain its bullish stance against the Euro and the Yen.
Here is a look at some of the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to during the week ahead (Note: All times Eastern):
Sunday, March 28 will begin the trading session with a notable report, the Japanese Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, at 7:50 p.m.
Monday, March 29 will start with the preliminary estimate of the German CPI (Consumer Price Index), the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone's largest economy, expected around 2:00 a.m.
News from the U.K. will bring the Bank of England Mortgage Approvals, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring newly issued home loans, at 4:30 a.m., along with the U.K. Net Lending to Individuals, a gauge of consumer credit conditions.
The Euro-zone Consumer Confidence, a survey of consumers' outlook on the economy, will hit the newswires at 5:00 a.m.
The U.S. economic data will bring the first spotlight event of the week, the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released at 8:30 a.m. At the same time comes the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Deflator, a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Fed because it measures a variable basket of goods and services, as opposed to the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which measures a fixed basket of goods and services.
Although personal income is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% m/m and consumer spending may be lower to 0.3% m/m from 0.5% m/m, consensus forecasts anticipate that the core PCE inflation gauge may show a slight increase in inflationary pressures by 0.1% m/m from the previous flat inflation reading of 0.0% m/m.
The evening reports will begin with the Japanese Unemployment Rate and Household Spending, two measures of labor market conditions and household expenditures, both due at 7:30 p.m.
The day will end with a spotlight event, the preliminary estimate of the Japanese Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, at 7:50 p.m.
Tuesday, March 30 will begin with the Swiss Composite Indicator of economic activity at 2:00 a.m.
One of the main spotlight events of the week, the U.K. GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the main measure of economic activity and growth, will be released at 4:30 a.m., along with the U.K. Current Account of goods, services and transfer of payments into and out of the region.
The Canadian IPPI (Industrial Product Price Index) and RMPI (Raw Materials Price Index), the main measures of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and leading indicators of consumer inflation, will follow at 8:30 a.m.
The U.S. economic reports will begin with the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index of the monthly changes in the average price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas, at 9:00 a.m. According to some of the consensus forecasts, the home price index may show smaller declines in U.S. home prices by -0.5% m/m from -3.1% m/m.
A spotlight event will follow with the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of the outlook of consumers on present and future economic conditions, at 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence in the U.S. is expected to improve to 49.0 from a previous reading of 46.0.
The day will conclude with a series of important economic reports, beginning with the U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index, a survey of consumers' financial conditions and outlook on the economy, at 7:00 p.m. This will be followed by the Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, at 7:15 p.m.
The Australian Retail Sales, an important measure of consumer spending, along with the Australian Building Approvals, a leading indicator of housing market activity, will follow at 8:30 p.m.
The day will end with the Japanese Average Cash Earnings, a measure of workers' income, at 7:50 p.m., and the New Zealand Business Confidence survey of the economic outlook of businesses, at 10:00 p.m.
Wednesday, March 31 will start with the Japanese Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity, at 1:00 a.m., the German Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending, at 2:00 a.m., and the German Unemployment Change, a measure of labor market conditions, at 3:55 a.m.
A spotlight event from the Euro-zone will bring the preliminary flash estimate of the Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European equivalent to the CPI (Consumer Price Index), at 5:00 a.m., along with the Euro-zone Unemployment Rate, a measure of labor market trends and conditions.
The U.S. economic reports will begin with a spotlight event, the ADP-Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, an important gauge of labor market conditions in the private sector of the economy, at 8:15 a.m.
The ADP data could become a good leading indicator of things to come for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, as consensus forecasts anticipate the ADP Employment Report to show the private sector of the U.S. economy adding 45K jobs, compared with 20K jobs lost in the previous month.
The sequence of spotlight events will continue with the Canadian GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, at 8:30 am, ET.
More U.S. economic data will bring the Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the Chicago region, at 9:45 a.m. This will be followed by the U.S. Factory Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring orders placed with domestic manufacturers, at 10:00 a.m., and the EIA (Energy Information Administration) Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 a.m.
The evening reports will deliver a series of significant economic releases from "Down Under," starting with the Australian Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, at 6:30 p.m.
Another notable report, the Australian TD Securities Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge, a measure of consumer inflation used as a leading monthly indicator of the quarterly-issued Consumer Price Index, will come at 7:30 p.m.
One of the main spotlight events of the week, the Japanese Tankan Index, Bank of Japan's quarterly survey of large and small manufacturing and services companies that serves as the main indicator of economic conditions in Japan, will be released at 7:50 p.m.
The busy day will end with the release of the Australian Trade Balance, which details the difference between imports and exports, at 8:30 p.m.
Thursday, April 1 will begin with a sequence of spotlight events, starting with the Swiss Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and service sectors, at 3:30 a.m.
Two notable reports will follow with the releases of the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, at 4:00 a.m., and the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), at 4:30 a.m.
The U.S. economic data will start with the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, at 8:30 a.m.
A spotlight event, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity where a reading above or below 50 is the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction, will be released at 10:00 a.m. The index may inch higher to 57.0 from a previous reading of 56.5.
The light on economic data day will conclude with the U.S. Construction Spending, a leading indicator of housing market activity, at 10:00 a.m., and the U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration) Weekly Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 a.m.
Friday, April 2 will bring only one notable economic release, ending the first trading week of the month with its main spotlight economic event: the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation Report. This event is one of the most important indicators of economic health, measuring the number of new jobs created, scheduled at 8:30 a.m., along with the U.S. Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.
Consensus forecasts point to what could turn out to be one of the best U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation reports in a long time on expectations that the unemployment rate may remain steady at 9.7% and that the U.S. economy could finally begin to add as much as 200K jobs, compared with 36K jobs lost in the previous month.
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